Rising Tensions and Cross-Border Strikes Threaten Regional Stability
AS THE ADAGE goes, “You reap what you sow.” This has proven true in the context of the recent escalation of violence between Afghanistan and Pakistan. For decades, Pakistan nurtured the Taliban for strategic reasons. So, what are the reasons behind the increased tension between these two neighbours, threatening the tenuous peace in the region?
The once cordial relationship between the Pakistani military and its protégé, the Taliban in Afghanistan, has soured. After the Taliban’s return to power in 2021 for the second time, Pakistan recognised it as a legitimate government and provided military assistance.
However, it would be naïve to describe relations between Pakistan and the Taliban 2.0 as harmonious. Within months of regaining power, the Taliban raised objections to Pakistan’s project of erecting fencing along their shared border, the Durand Line—a demarcation previous Afghan governments have never accepted. Skirmishes between the two sides began as early as 2022.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, left, with his Afghan counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi, centre, during a meeting in Islamabad in May, 2023
Contrary to expectations, the Taliban 2.0 refused to comply with Pakistan’s demands and chose to govern independently. However, their efforts to establish peace and an effective government in Afghanistan have been hampered by infighting among internal factions, such as the Haqqani network; the political wing led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar; and the military wing represented by Mullah Muhammad Yaqoob and Mullah Abdul Qayum Zakir.
Crucially, the Taliban 2.0 has also failed to rein in remaining terrorist elements after the withdrawal of US troops. These include splinter groups like the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), a jihadist organisation seeking to create a caliphate across South and Central Asia. Over the last three years, IS-K has carried out multiple terror attacks in Afghanistan, undermining the Taliban 2.0’s bid for international legitimacy—a message that resonates with many disaffected Afghans.
Meanwhile, armed resistance is growing elsewhere too. The anti-Taliban group Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF), led by former General Yasin Zia, has become increasingly bold in attacking Taliban forces throughout the country. Reports suggest the AFF is cooperating with the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF), led by Ahmad Massoud, son of the legendary anti-Soviet leader Ahmad Shah Massoud.
In its current standoff, the group that most alarms Pakistan is Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), often associated with the Haqqani network. Though the ruling Taliban in Afghanistan and the TTP are separate, they are allied groups.
Following the Taliban’s return to power, Pakistan has witnessed a surge in terror attacks, emboldened by the TTP’s growing strength. The TTP’s aim is to establish an Islamic emirate in Pakistan, mirroring the Taliban’s success in Kabul. A report by the Islamabad-based Centre for Research and Security Studies revealed a 56% rise in fatalities from terror attacks in Pakistan in 2023 compared to 2022, with over 1,500 killed, including 500 security personnel.
Relations between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan’s government have further deteriorated, with Islamabad accusing Kabul of cross-border terrorism. Pakistan has responded with trade restrictions, expelling 500,000 undocumented Afghan migrants, tightening visa policies, and conducting military operations against the TTP.
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The current escalation began with Pakistani airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan’s Paktika province. These airstrikes, targeting TTP training camps, reportedly killed 46 people, mostly women and children, according to Taliban officials. A Pakistani official stated that the strikes aimed at “terrorist hideouts inside Afghanistan, using a mix of jets and drones.”
The Taliban’s Defence Ministry has vowed retaliation, calling the strikes “barbaric” and a “clear aggression.” Afghanistan’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Pakistani envoy to lodge a strong protest. Reports indicate around 15,000 Taliban fighters are marching from Kabul, Kandahar, and Herat towards the Mir Ali border in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province to launch a major offensive.
Pakistan’s military strikes followed a deadly TTP attack on a checkpoint in northwest Pakistan, which killed 16 soldiers.
The souring of relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a direct consequence of Pakistan’s long-standing policy of supporting terror groups in the region—a strategy whose repercussions were long foreseen by security experts.
Though TTP is distinct from the Afghan Taliban, they share a tacit understanding. Pakistan accuses the Kabul regime of unwillingness to act against insurgents along the porous Afghanistan-Pakistan border, further complicating the situation.
Pakistan’s dual strategy of fostering and combating terror groups has backfired, proving the adage true: what Pakistan once nurtured as a strategic asset has become a volatile force threatening its own stability. 
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Asad Mirza
The author is a political commentator based in New Delhi. He was also associated with BBC Urdu Service and Khaleej Times of Dubai. He writes on Muslims, educational, international affairs, interfaith and current affairs.
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