Urban votes, party fractures, and leadership shifts—this bypoll could redraw Punjab’s political map.
THE LUDHIANA WEST Assembly bypoll, scheduled for June 19, 2025, is a critical electoral event that could redefine Punjab’s political landscape. This survey note provides a comprehensive analysis of the likely winner and the potential implications for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)—based on past performances, current developments, and expert insights.
Historical Context and Past Performance
To understand the current contest, it is essential to examine the parties’ performances in Ludhiana West in recent elections:
2022 Assembly Elections: In the 2022 Punjab Assembly elections, AAP’s Gurpreet Singh Gogi won the Ludhiana West seat, defeating Congress’s Bharat Bhushan Ashu by a margin of 7,512 votes. This victory was part of AAP’s historic sweep, securing 92 out of 117 seats. Historical data shows that in 2017, Ashu won with 66,627 votes, while AAP’s candidate Ahbaab Singh Grewal polled 30,106 votes—indicating a significant surge in AAP’s vote share by 2022, reflecting its growing urban appeal.
2024 Lok Sabha Elections: The 2024 Lok Sabha elections presented a different picture. Congress’s Amrinder Singh Raja Warring won the Ludhiana seat, defeating BJP’s Ravneet Singh Bittu by 20,942 votes. In the Ludhiana West assembly segment, Bittu secured 45,000 votes, a sharp increase from 14,000 in 2019, showcasing BJP’s rising urban influence. Conversely, AAP’s performance dropped drastically, with only 2,157 votes, highlighting a steep decline in its national-level support in this constituency.
This historical analysis suggests that while AAP dominated in the 2022 Assembly polls, its support waned significantly in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Congress retained strength in the broader Ludhiana seat, while BJP made notable inroads in urban areas.
Current Factors Influencing the Bypoll
Several contemporary factors are shaping the bypoll and could significantly sway voter sentiment:
1. AAP’s Farmer Protest Stance: AAP’s recent action against protesting farmers at the Shambu barrier—reportedly under pressure from Ludhiana’s industrialists—could work in its favor. Ludhiana West, an urban constituency with a strong business community, may view this move positively as aligning with economic interests. This assertive leadership stance, combined with Arora’s industrialist background, could consolidate AAP’s urban support in this business-dominated constituency.
2. Congress’s Internal Conflicts: The Congress campaign has been marred by infighting, particularly between state president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring and candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu. Reports indicate Warring’s and several other leaders’ absence from campaign events and perceived opposition to Ashu and campaign in-charge Rana Gurjeet Singh, creating visible divisions. This discord could undermine Congress’s prospects, as highlighted in a recent Tribune article emphasizing the party’s need to resolve internal rivalries.
3. BJP’s Rising Urban Influence: While BJP is unlikely to win, it has demonstrated growing strength in urban Ludhiana. Bittu’s 45,000 votes in Ludhiana West during the 2024 elections reflect its increasing appeal among the Hindu business community. BJP’s presence may split votes between AAP and Congress—potentially benefiting AAP, as noted in media discussions on the triangular nature of the contest.
4. SAD’s Weakened Position: Once a dominant force, SAD has been struggling since its 2020 split with BJP. The satta bazaar offers the highest returns on SAD candidate Paropkar Singh Ghumman, indicating low expectations. An interview with Sunil Jakhar in The Indian Express suggested that SAD’s continued decline could fuel radicalism, underlining its precarious standing.
5. Satta Bazaar Trends: As reported in The Tribune, the betting market strongly favors AAP’s Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora, offering the lowest returns on his victory. This trend indicates confidence in AAP’s organizational strength and Arora’s candidacy, further boosted by high-profile campaigns by Arvind Kejriwal and Bhagwant Mann.
Detailed Analysis of Potential Outcomes
• Likely Winner: Based on the 2022 win, favorable satta bazaar trends, and strong backing from Ludhiana’s industrialists, AAP is currently the frontrunner. Its stance on farmers, though controversial, may resonate with urban voters. Recent opinion polls show AAP leading with 36.23% support, versus Congress’s 24.31%, reinforcing this projection.
• Impact on AAP: A victory would have national implications. Sanjeev Arora’s win could enable Arvind Kejriwal to move to the Rajya Sabha, vacating Arora’s seat. This shift would enhance AAP’s parliamentary presence under Kejriwal’s direct leadership—reviving its national ambitions post-Delhi setbacks. Within the INDIA alliance, it could allow AAP to assert dominance over Congress. AAP already has double-digit representation in both houses of Parliament, and Kejriwal’s leadership could give it renewed momentum.
• Impact on Congress: A Congress win would boost morale ahead of the 2027 elections and elevate Rana Gurjeet as a key leader. It could also reignite internal leadership debates, especially given perceived tensions between Warring and Ashu. The margin of victory (or loss) will be crucial—a narrow loss could allow Congress to blame misuse of official machinery. A victory would also enhance the stature of Channi and Rana Gurjeet, setting the stage for a major realignment in leadership.
• Impact on BJP: Although a win is unlikely, BJP’s increasing urban vote share could position it as a serious contender in future elections. A strong performance would demonstrate voters’ desire to align the state with the Centre for development and could influence the 2027 elections, possibly leading to a hung assembly. It would also give BJP leverage in any future seat-sharing deals with SAD.
• Impact on SAD: SAD faces an uphill battle. High satta returns reflect low public confidence. A loss would confirm its diminishing relevance and might exacerbate fears of rising radicalism due to the vacuum in moderate Sikh leadership. However, an unexpected win—even if improbable—could revive its rural and Sikh base.
The Ludhiana West bypoll is a microcosm of Punjab’s shifting political landscape. AAP appears poised to retain the seat, driven by industrialist backing, its 2022 win, and favorable betting trends. However, Congress’s internal turmoil and BJP’s urban rise add complexity. The results, due on June 23, will not only determine the seat’s fate but could signal broader shifts—potentially revitalizing AAP’s national presence and reshaping Congress’s leadership battles. 
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Gurpartap Singh Mann
With prior experience as a Member of the Punjab Public Service Commission, the author brings a nuanced perspective to issues of governance and social change.
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