A New Dawn for Türkiye? Öcalan’s Call for Peace and Its Implications

A Historic Call for Peace and Its Impact on Türkiye and the Region

IT APPEARS THAT one of the Middle East’s most intractable conflicts might be nearing its end, with ramifications that will be felt far and wide following a call for peace by PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan. For half a century, Kurdish militants have fought Türkiye for independence in the country’s southeast, a conflict that has claimed more than 40,000 lives and extended beyond Türkiye’s borders into Iran, Iraq, and Syria.

On Thursday (February 27), Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), called on its members to lay down their arms and dissolve the group. However, the success of this call now hinges on sustained cooperation among the various parties involved. Political analysts remain skeptical that PKK militants, based in the mountainous northern regions of Iraq, will heed Öcalan’s appeal. He has been imprisoned on an island near Istanbul for a quarter of a century.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Öcalan’s message the start of a new phase in peace efforts, although his government has publicly dismissed suggestions that the call could lead to formal peace talks. Analysts suggest that Erdoğan, 71, is primarily focused on the potential domestic political dividends of peace as he seeks to extend his two-decade rule beyond 2028, when his term expires.

The announcement created ripples across the Middle East and may affect various Kurdish militia groups with long-standing but varied ties to the PKK. The group, which is classified as a terrorist organization in Türkiye, the US, and the UK, described Öcalan’s announcement as part of “a new historic process” for the region.

The PKK’s executive committee also called for Öcalan’s release from his island prison so that he could “personally direct” a meeting aimed at disbanding the group.

According to The New York Times, the PKK launched an armed insurgency against the Turkish state in the early 1980s, initially seeking independence for the Kurds, who are believed to make up at least 15% of Türkiye’s population. The insurgency began in the mountains of eastern and southern Türkiye, where PKK fighters targeted Turkish military bases and police stations, prompting harsh government responses. Over time, the conflict spread, with devastating PKK bombings in Turkish cities that claimed many civilian lives.

In 1999, Türkiye captured Öcalan and convicted him of leading an armed terrorist group. He was sentenced to death, but the sentence was later commuted to life in prison. Since his incarceration, Öcalan has shifted his ideological stance away from secession toward advocating for Kurdish rights within Türkiye.

The Kurds are an ethnic group of roughly 40 million people, primarily concentrated in Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Türkiye. Most Kurds are Sunni Muslims. After World War I, world powers promised them a nation of their own, but that promise was never fulfilled. Subsequent Kurdish rebellions in various countries were met with state suppression of Kurdish language and culture.

Since the 1991 Gulf War, the largely Kurdish northern region of Iraq has enjoyed semi-autonomy. Multiple attempts to end the Türkiye-PKK conflict have been made, beginning with a ceasefire in 1993, followed by peace talks in 2009-2011 and 2013-2015. However, all these efforts collapsed.

In this context, Dr. Medhat Hamad, a professor of Iranian and Asian Studies at Tanta University in Egypt and head of the Farabi Centre for Political and Development Studies, told Türkiye’s Hawar News that Öcalan’s announcement is of great significance. He argued that it reveals a political, ideological, and even national self-review conducted by Öcalan after analyzing the global and regional landscape.

Dr. Hamad also suggested that this signals a shift in the Turkish political mindset regarding its governance and its approach to the Kurdish issue, particularly Öcalan. He asserted that Öcalan would not have issued this statement unless he had received Turkish assurances, promises, and commitments to provide Kurds with greater democratic rights—achievements they had failed to secure through armed struggle.

Dr. Hamad further explained that Öcalan has assessed future threats to the Kurdish cause, particularly potential Western—especially American—plans that could undermine both Kurdish and Turkish strategic interests in the coming years, similar to events in Syria. He stressed that this shift is of extreme importance and could have far-reaching consequences.

Öcalan, he added, appears to have a pragmatic understanding of the regional and international situation. “Abdullah Öcalan perhaps wanted to safeguard the future of the Kurdish cause, unlike some other political organizations. He has read the situation carefully and aims to preserve the Kurdish cause for the next hundred years,” Hamad said.

Meanwhile, Türkiye’s Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Erdoğan’s right-wing ally, has emerged as a strong supporter of the peace process. MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, who initiated this new process by unexpectedly suggesting that Öcalan should call for an end to the insurgency in exchange for the possibility of his release in October 2024, has welcomed the recent call.

Yet, restoring peace will not be easy. Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, told Reuters that PKK leaders holed up in the Qandil mountains of northern Iraq remain deeply distrustful of Ankara’s intentions.

“Elderly commanders may also resist disbanding the PKK entirely or immediately without achieving any of its original goals—an outcome that could make them feel their sacrifices were in vain,” Cagaptay said.

The details of Öcalan’s announcement were “purposefully shrouded in mystery, partly because Türkiye’s two previous peace dialogues with the PKK failed miserably,” he added.

Indeed, if Öcalan’s followers heed this new call, it would mark a turning point for Türkiye and have profound implications for the Middle East. As Erdoğan seeks to capitalize on turmoil in Syria and military advances against PKK fighters in northern Iraq, the path to peace remains uncertain.

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