Trump’s Bold Gamble in Ukraine and Its Global Consequences
THE WAY US President Donald Trump has cosied up to Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the nearly three-year-old Russia-Ukraine war has baffled security experts, foreign affairs analysts, and international observers alike. However, the real reason behind this rapprochement can be summed up in just two words: treachery and theft.
Initially, it seemed as though Trump was genuinely interested in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But subsequent developments have shown that he is pursuing this goal by securing his pound of Ukrainian flesh—in the form of its rare earth mineral deposits—while also eyeing the Nobel Peace Prize.
The manner in which he has gone about this makes it clear that he is determined to give Putin a seat of respect at the international table, even at the cost of antagonising America’s European and NATO partners.
In just a few days, the United States has brought Russia in from the cold, fostering a closer US-Russia relationship while side-lining European countries and the rest of the world.
This diplomatic manoeuvring has also shifted the anti-West narrative in Russia, although Trump’s initial steps towards brokering a deal in Ukraine were met with mixed emotions in Moscow.
Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, senior fellows at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, noted in their analysis for Politico that never before has Russian media cited its Western counterparts so extensively.
After all, for the past three years, Russian society was urged to turn away from the ‘treacherous, decadent West’ and look towards the East—namely China and North Korea. Yet, even the influential daily Kommersant, typically known for its balanced tone, ran the headline “Putin’s Triumph” in its review of international coverage following Trump’s phone call with the Russian president.
This move apparently assuaged Putin’s ego and his desire to be seen as a leader in Europe. It created a new narrative in which Putin is respected as an equal partner by Trump, furthering a scenario where Europe and Ukraine are pushed to the margins.
What is even more alarming is that as more bizarre details of the US-Russia deal—rather than a peace plan—emerged, it became apparent that, in an extraordinary move, Trump attempted to claim half of Ukraine’s rare earth metals wealth. This was seen as exploiting an invaded nation’s vulnerability, as reported by CNN. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately rejected the “deal.”
CNN’s Stephen Collinson argued that Trump appears to have little understanding of historical complexities, whether in Ukraine or the Middle East, given his plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to build beach resorts. Collinson further noted that Trump’s habit of viewing every geopolitical crisis as a real estate deal suggests he might accept an agreement allowing Putin to keep all the land he’s seized, just to end the conflict.
A hurried peace deal that strengthens Russia while weakening European security by validating Putin’s expansionism could sow the seeds for a more devastating war in the future.
Then US President George H.W. Bush with Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev. (File photo)
At the end of the Cold War, President George H.W. Bush managed the dissolution of the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe—sometimes overruling regional leaders in the broader interests of the West and global security. There is no indication that Trump shares this sense of responsibility for Europe or its future.
In retrospect, it’s puzzling why European governments were so taken aback. Trump is merely doing what he promised on the campaign trail. Their misjudgement led to the embarrassing spectacle of key European leaders rushing to Paris for emergency talks last Monday to figure out how to respond to being left out of the geopolitical equation.
According to Trump, Ukraine’s underground mineral reserves should now belong to the United States.
Last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent visited Kyiv and presented President Zelenskyy with a surprising demand for half of Ukraine’s mineral wealth, as well as its oil, gas, and infrastructure, including ports. This $500 billion claim was described by the White House as “payback” for previous US military assistance to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy refused to sign the agreement, insisting that Washington provide security guarantees before any deal could be considered over the country’s vast natural resources, which account for about 5% of global mineral reserves. He also noted that the US had provided $69.2 billion in military aid—less than the sum Trump was demanding—and suggested that other partners, including the EU, Canada, and the UK, might also be interested in investing.
Meanwhile, US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz has been working hard to paint Trump as a peacemaker.
“He’s going to end the war in Europe. He’s going to end the wars in the Middle East. He’s going to reinvest the United States and our leadership in our own hemisphere, from the Arctic to Panama,” Waltz stated.
“By the end of all this, we’re going to have the Nobel Peace Prize next to Donald J. Trump’s name,” he added.
Fortune magazine reports that Trump’s proposed contract has been compared to the reparations imposed on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles after World War I.
Germany was held liable for roughly $32 billion—about $560 billion today. Many historians believe that German resentment over the treaty and the resulting economic downturn significantly contributed to the rise of the Nazi Party and the outbreak of World War II.
A detailed analysis of the situation suggests that by demanding a significant share of Ukraine’s mineral wealth, Trump aims to gain access to rare earth minerals, which are currently dominated by China.
Ultimately, Trump seems unconcerned about alienating Europe or boosting Putin’s ego. As a businessman and trader, he is primarily focused on controlling these mineral resources to maintain US dominance in critical sectors like defence and space technology. At the same time, he is angling for a Nobel Peace Prize nomination—a campaign that will likely dominate headlines in the days to come. 
Asad Mirza
The author is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on national and international affairs, defence and strategic issues, and environmental concerns. He is also an interfaith practitioner and a media consultant. Previously, he was associated with the BBC Urdu Service and the Khaleej Times in Dubai.
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