From ‘Howdy Modi’ to hardened stances, the journey of Indo–US relations under Trump has been marked by turbulence, mistrust, and lessons for the future.
THE RESUMPTION OF talks between India and the United States of America is a welcome step, but the bitterness caused by President Trump’s unilateral decision to impose a total tariff of 50 per cent has left a lasting impact. The relationship between the world’s largest democracy and its oldest democracy had slumped to its lowest levels since the 1971 war, when the US had sent its Seventh Fleet to the Bay of Bengal to threaten India.
The unpredictable and maverick attitude of Trump is well known the world over. No other leader in modern times has disrupted the world order the way Trump has. His off-the-cuff and casual remarks have caused significant damage to the US’s relations with various nations.
He will also go down in history for conducting diplomacy in the open rather than behind closed doors, as is the usual practice. His public spat with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine will be remembered for a long time.
Trump has been blowing hot and cold with India. Both Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi proclaimed a special chemistry between them. Modi’s “Howdy, America” programme and Trump’s “Namaste India” heralded an unprecedented bonhomie between the two leaders and the two nations.
Modi even went a step further by coining the slogan “Abki Baar, Trump Sarkar.” Although Trump later lost those elections, he bounced back for a second term with a hardened approach.
His decision to “punish” India for purchasing oil from Russia and “fuelling the war” against Ukraine was unreasonable and plunged relations between the two countries to new depths.
China imports more petroleum products from Russia than India, and even the European Union, an ally of the US, continues to purchase these products from Russia, yet these countries were not subjected to additional tariffs. What’s more, even America imports goods—besides rare minerals—from Russia.
Evidently, after realising that India would not buckle under threats and that, in a way, his decisions were pushing India closer to Russia and China, Trump and his advisors decided to soften their stance. India responded positively to the initiative, leading to the resumption of trade talks.
The United States is India’s largest trading partner and one of the few countries with which India had a trade surplus last year.
India’s exports to the US increased from US $ 77.51 billion to US $ 86.51 billion, while imports rose from US $ 42.19 billion to US $ 45.69 billion. This resulted in a trade surplus of US $ 40.82 billion in India’s favour.
Thus, the US had a point in highlighting the trade imbalance and in complaining that India imposed higher tariffs on certain goods imported from that country.
India’s major exports to the US include engineering goods, electronic goods, gems and jewellery, pharmaceutical products, light crude oil and petroleum, and electrical equipment, among others.
Imports from the US include mineral fuels, mineral oils, natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, mechanical appliances, and pharmaceuticals.
While India was willing to address the trade imbalance and even reduce tariffs on certain items, the US insistence on India importing agricultural produce—particularly corn, soya beans, and wheat—led to a showdown.
India drew a red line on agricultural imports, citing the already critical condition of its farming sector, where a majority of farmers are on the brink of survival.
The pressure on the US government to export agricultural products to India and other countries was mainly due to the fact that China, its biggest consumer, had drastically cut down imports from the US.
India imports small quantities of corn, with the bulk of imports coming from Myanmar and Ukraine and only a smaller quantity from the US.
However, it has imposed two restrictions: a cap on the quantity imported so as not to hurt domestic farmers, and a ban on genetically modified (GM) crops, including corn.
After the stalling of trade talks for over a month, the US is expected to adopt a more reasonable stance and respect the red lines drawn by India. It must have realised that India can withstand pressure.
However, the recent developments have caused serious damage to the relationship between the two countries, and it will take a very long time to restore the trust that had been built up over the last two decades.
It won’t be business as usual with the US under Trump, but there is no alternative to continued engagement. The lessons from these developments must never be forgotten. 
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Vipin Pubby
The author, a freelance journalist, is a former Resident Editor of Indian Express, Chandigarh, and reported on the political developments in Jammu and Kashmir, North-Eastern India, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab in his long, illustrious career.
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