The Indo-Pacific Flashpoint: America’s Warning and China’s Retort

As tensions escalate over Taiwan and the South China Sea, the US signals urgency — while Beijing responds with defiance.

AT THE RECENTLY concluded Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth urged American allies in Asia to boost their defences swiftly, stating that the United States is shifting its strategy to counter growing threats from China.

In his speech at the 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue, Hegseth warned that China is “credibly preparing” to use military force to shift the balance of power in Asia. He asserted that the US remains firmly committed to the Indo-Pacific region, according to news agency AFP.

Hegseth described the threat posed by China as “real and potentially imminent.” He accused Beijing of building up military capabilities to potentially invade Taiwan and “rehearsing for the real deal” through repeated large-scale exercises.

He urged US allies in Asia to urgently strengthen their defences, saying that the US is adjusting its strategy to deter aggression from communist China.

These comments come amid rising tensions between Washington and Beijing over trade, technology, and regional influence. Since taking office in January, President Trump has launched a trade war with China, restricted access to advanced AI technologies, and strengthened security ties with allies such as the Philippines.

Hegseth called China’s actions a “wake-up call,” accusing Beijing of endangering lives through cyberattacks, harassing neighbours, and “illegally seizing and militarising land” in the South China Sea. He reiterated that the US is committed to ensuring that “China cannot dominate us—or our allies and partners.”

At the Singapore security forum, Hegseth emphasised that the Indo-Pacific remains “America’s priority theatre” and reaffirmed Trump’s pledge that “China will not invade \[Taiwan] on his watch.”

He urged allies to increase defence spending and modernise military capabilities. His remarks followed renewed trade tensions after Trump accused China of having “violated” a tariff truce amid stalled negotiations.

While Hegseth delivered his address in Singapore, China’s military announced that its navy and air force were conducting routine “combat readiness patrols” near the Scarborough Shoal—a disputed group of reefs and rocks claimed by both China and the Philippines.

“China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea has only increased in recent years,” said Casey Mace, chargé d’affaires at the US embassy in Singapore, speaking to reporters ahead of the summit. “I think this forum is exactly the kind of platform where such issues should be discussed.”

China, which usually sends its defence minister to the Shangri-La forum, instead dispatched a lower-level delegation this year, led by Major General Hu Gangfeng, Vice President of the People’s Liberation Army’s National Defence University.

In response to what it termed “negative” comments by the US Defence Secretary exaggerating the “China threat” narrative, Zhang Xiaogang, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defence, said on Sunday (June 1) that the US is accustomed to creating disputes, inciting confrontation, and pursuing selfish interests at the Shangri-La Dialogue, according to Global Times.

Zhang said the US remarks were filled with hegemonic logic, bullying behaviour, and a Cold War mentality. He accused the US of seriously provoking China’s sovereignty and interests, distorting its policy positions, and disregarding the joint efforts of regional countries to maintain peace and stability.

“This US stance seriously deviates from the global aspiration for peace and development,” Zhang added in a statement released on the Ministry’s official WeChat account.

He said the US’s conduct is clear to the international community: driven by selfish interests, it has initiated tariff and trade wars, imposed exorbitant levies worldwide, formed exclusionary cliques, and engaged in bloc confrontations—raising concerns among many nations.

According to Zhang, the US has also strengthened its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, grossly interfered in other countries’ internal affairs, and incited regional tensions. “The facts repeatedly prove that the US is going against the tide of the times and acting unilaterally, which will only backfire,” he said.

On Taiwan, Zhang reiterated that the issue is purely an internal matter for China. “The US has no right to make irresponsible remarks or use this as a bargaining chip to contain China,” he said. “The PLA will resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and firmly crush any ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist schemes and external interference. Our determination is unwavering, and our capabilities are strong and reliable.”

But is Hegseth’s Assessment Correct?

The Economist, in a recent analysis, notes that a fog of uncertainty hangs over Taiwan. Last year, American officials reset 2027 as a possible target date for China and suggested that the threat of invasion had lessened. They cited China’s shortage of amphibious landing craft and repeated anti-corruption purges in the top ranks of the PLA—suggesting that President Xi Jinping may lack confidence in his military leadership.

Western defence officials say there is no intelligence indicating an imminent assault on Taiwan. However, they caution that China’s military exercises have become so large and frequent that a limited action—such as seizing outlying islands or enforcing a blockade—could occur at any moment.

Is the US Threat of Intervention Credible?

Another important question is whether Hegseth’s warning of US intervention is credible. His urgent call to confront China is striking, especially from an administration that professes to seek peace in a conflict-ridden world. Notably, President Trump has accused Taiwan of “stealing” the chip industry.

Even Elbridge Colby, a known advocate of Taiwan’s defence and former Under Secretary of Defence for Policy, seemed to shift toward isolationism this year by stating that an invasion of Taiwan would not be an “existential” threat to the US.

After imposing 145% tariffs on China earlier this year, Trump eventually backed down—suggesting he might lack the resolve to impose a crippling embargo on China in response to aggression against Taiwan.

Some Chinese delegates questioned Hegseth’s authority to speak on China. The defence secretary, a former National Guard major and Fox News talk show host, has drawn attention for his efforts to eliminate “woke” ideology from the military and promote a revival of the “warrior ethos.”

A study by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, which organises the Shangri-La Dialogue, notes that several Asian countries are already increasing spending on weapons and defence technology. However, overall defence expenditure in the region remained steady at around 1.5% of GDP in 2024.

While Hegseth’s remarks may resonate with regional allies such as Australia, other South Asian nations continue to favour diplomacy over confrontation. They urge the US to abandon its “Cold War mentality,” recognise the realities of a multi-polar world, and adapt its strategies accordingly—instead of insisting on being numero uno.

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