In his first nine months back in office, Donald Trump’s unpredictable policy swings—from steep H-1B visa hikes to tightening India’s access to Chabahar and quietly backing a Saudi–Pakistan defence tie—present urgent challenges for New Delhi.
IT IS NOTHING less than a triple whammy against India. Staying true to his erratic style, President Donald Trump has unleashed policies that hit straight into New Delhi’s core interests.
After slapping tariffs of up to 50 percent on Indian exports, he’s now doubled down with two new blows: an astronomical hike in H-1B visa fees and the abrupt withdrawal of the Chabahar waiver, jeopardising India’s hard-won connectivity projects in the region.
For the Modi government, the task just got tougher—balancing a flood of anti-India rhetoric while protecting national interests from lasting damage.
Barely nine months into his second term, has President Trump triggered a cascade of decisions that favour short-term political gain over strategic insight, diplomatic reach, or prudence?
The $100,000 H-1B visa fee, revoking the U.S. waiver for India’s Chabahar port, and the tacit endorsement of a Saudi–Pakistan defence pact may appear aimed at optics, revenue, and nationalist sentiments—but they risk undermining long-term stability and international trust.
For India, these moves disrupt decades of strategic planning and demand urgent diplomatic and economic recalibration.
Political Fallout: Modi’s U.S. Diplomacy under Strain
Trump’s decision to impose a $100,000 fee on each H-1B visa petition is more than just a setback for Indian technocrats—it is politically combustible for Prime Minister Modi. In 2019’s “Howdy Modi” rally and again at Ahmedabad’s Sardar Patel Stadium in 2020, Modi mobilised massive support for Trump, casting him as a strategic partner and projecting U.S.–India ties as central to India’s global standing.
By publicly endorsing Trump’s goodwill, Modi may have presumed that personal chemistry would result in predictable policy outcomes. The H-1B fee shock exposes the fragility of that assumption—striking at the very students, professionals, and families who celebrated those rallies.
What was meant to signal India’s influence now fuels domestic unease, as thousands of Indian professionals in the U.S. face uncertainty and financial stress.
The Saudi–Pakistan defence pact adds fuel to the fire. Along with Trump’s withdrawal of the Chabahar waiver and prior remarks on mediating Operation Sindoor, Riyadh’s formal deal with Islamabad enables the opposition to argue that India’s gamble on leader-centric diplomacy has backfired.
Critics can point to Modi’s high-profile rallies as evidence of overconfidence in transactional politics. The optics are sharp: Indian talent and investments suffer blows abroad while regional rivals like Pakistan gain fresh support, giving credence to charges of strategic misjudgment that resonate with voters, technocrats, and the public.
H-1B Fee Surge: Innovation under Siege
Imposing a $100,000 fee on every H-1B petition is a blunt instrument masquerading as “protection for American workers.” Applied to the annual 85,000 cap, it could yield $8.5 billion; extended to all 141,000 petitions in FY 2024, that number rockets to nearly $14 billion.
The repercussions go far beyond revenue. Indian professionals contribute over $80 billion annually via U.S. payrolls, patents, startups, and consumer spending. Giants such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Infosys, and TCS will struggle with compliance costs, while smaller firms that depend on specialist talent may collapse. Critical domains like healthcare IT and financial services are also at risk of disruption.
Back home, nearly 300,000 Indian expatriate professionals—many from Karnataka, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Delhi–NCR—find career prospects stalled.
Families dependent on U.S. employment may have to rethink plans, and universities could see enrollment shifts. Those returning to India may bring back lower remittances and contribute to a weakened innovation ecosystem.
India’s counterstrategy should include strong lobbying for sector exemptions (e.g. in health, R&D), deepening ties with Europe, Japan, and Australia, and accelerating investment in domestic talent and innovation.
While Trump’s H-1B surcharge may grab headlines, it risks choking America’s own competitiveness—and gives India a chance to fortify its strategic self-reliance.
Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact: New Strategic Currents
The defence agreement signed in Riyadh between Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman changes South Asia’s security contours. Though billed as a stability measure, it gives Pakistan financial relief, military backing, and enhanced region-level posture, complementing China’s Gulf ambitions.
India’s cautious acknowledgement reflects a delicate balancing act: Saudi Arabia remains a crucial energy supplier and strategic partner. But the pact could embolden cross-border provocations and empower proxy groups, complicating India’s counterterror and defence cooperation in the Gulf.
For New Delhi, decades of cultivating naval ties, joint exercises, and defence exports are now under stress. Domestically, criticism is mounting against “personality-based diplomacy,” warning that overreliance on leader-level engagements is risky.
Pakistan gains with deferred oil payments, financial backing, and global prestige—freeing resources for military expansion and proxy operations. China benefits quietly, as the pact reinforces CPEC and bolsters Beijing’s footprint in Central Asia and the Gulf.
India must to protect its Gulf partnerships, strengthen counterterror coordination, and pursue a multipolar foreign policy involving the U.S., Russia, and Israel.
Chabahar Sanctions: Strategic Setback
Trump’s decision to revoke the U.S. waiver for India’s Chabahar operations, effective September 29, 2025, represents a direct blow to India’s regional connectivity ambitions. Under Washington’s “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran, the move imperils $120 million in investments and weakens a critical corridor linking India to Afghanistan, Russia, and Central Asia.
Chabahar Port
Chabahar is more than a port—it bypasses Pakistan, counters China’s Gwadar, and anchors the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
India Ports Global Ltd, which has managed the Shahid Beheshti terminal since 2018, now faces operational, financial, and insurance challenges. Afghanistan, reliant on Indian aid via Chabahar, may drift closer toward Pakistan and China.
Though its cargo volume may appear modest (around 2 million tonnes), Chabahar carries outsized strategic weight. Disrupting the INSTC risks pushing Central Asia and Russia further into China’s orbit, especially with Beijing’s $400 billion Iran deal ready to fill any gap.
India’s response must be layered: engaging Washington on Chabahar’s stabilising role, maintaining discreet ties with Tehran, bolstering alternate INSTC routes, diversifying energy imports, and investing in Central Asia’s infrastructure and digital future. What may now look like a setback can become a pivot point for forging a more resilient regional strategy.
Navigating Uncertainty: India’s Strategic Imperative
H-1B surcharges, Chabahar curbs, and the Saudi–Pakistan pact illustrate the volatility of U.S. policy and the shifting dynamics of South Asia.
India’s challenge is clear: defend economic and human capital in the U.S., protect regional connectivity from sanctions and Chinese influence, and sustain strong Gulf diplomacy.
Strategic patience, proactive diplomacy, and resilient domestic institutions will determine whether these shocks weaken India—or spur a more confident, self-reliant global posture. 
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K. S. Tomar
The writer, a senior political analyst, is a former Editor of the Hindustan Times' Rajasthan edition and has spent nearly four decades in journalism, including a six year stint in Nepal where he covered Sino-India-Nepal complex relationship and had a ringside seat to the Himalayan Kingdom's transition into democracy.
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